Strategic foresight analysis by Andrei Cursaru, CYIS Founder and CEO
Introduction
In the year 2099, the global security landscape will undergo a profound transformation, significantly different from our current reality in 2023. The challenges and changes in technology, geopolitics, society, and the environment will compel nations to reassess their strategic approaches to security. While we cannot predict the future, we can use current trends to hypothesise what a future, evolved security landscape might look like. In this blog post, I delve into the insights and strategic decisions that could potentially emerge in response to the evolving security landscape, exploring how nations would navigate these complexities of the 21st century.
The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The geopolitical terrain of the world will witness a dramatic shift, with former adversaries undergoing transformations that redefine the concept of strategic threat. Russia, once viewed as a major adversary, will fragment into micro-federations. Emerging from this transformation will likely be a regional security alliance formed by former Russian republics, Hungary, Belarus, and Turkey, let us call it the Petersburg Pakt (PP4). This reshaping of alliances will prompt nations to recalibrate their geopolitical focus and strategies.
Recognizing the strategic importance of the southeast European flank, nations will need to include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo in their security plans. This strategic move will aim to reinforce their presence in the region and secure key areas of responsibility. Additionally, there is an operational necessity to create the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) which will demonstrate a commitment to collective deterrence and defence in the face of evolving geopolitical challenges.
Technological Transformations: AI, Quantum Computing, and Beyond
The advent of the 22nd century will bring unprecedented technological transformations, reshaping the dynamics of modern conflict. Quantum computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and algorithmic warfare will emerge as pivotal elements in the new security paradigm. Nations will eventually recognize the significance of these advancements and invest in cutting-edge solutions to stay ahead.
AI integration will become a game changer and operational necessity in military operations, with autonomous systems playing crucial roles in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and decision-making processes. Ethical and legal challenges surrounding AI in warfare will prompt nations to develop comprehensive frameworks for responsible AI use.
Beyond AI, investments will extend to emerging technologies such as nanotechnology, biotechnology, and cognitive domain capabilities. Nations will need to explore the possibilities of biological human enhancement, aiming to push the boundaries of human capabilities for future warfare.
Environmental Considerations and Security
The evolving security landscape acknowledges the critical role of the environment in shaping global security. Accelerated climate change will emerge as a significant security challenge, influencing migration patterns, resource competition, and vulnerabilities in coastal regions and critical infrastructure.
Nations will need to commit and actively contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, recognizing the need for responsible and sustainable security practices. This approach aims not only to adapt to new operational environments but also to actively contribute to global environmental sustainability.
Operational Adaptations in Multi-Domain Operations
In response to the changing nature of warfare, nations will acknowledge the necessity to redefine Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). No longer limited to traditional domains like land, sea, air, and cyberspace, MDO will need to expand to include emerging domains such as the Sea Bed, Cognitive Domain, and inter-Celestial Systems (iCS). This shift will prompt nations to develop comprehensive strategies to counter adversarial threats across these expanded domains.
The establishment of a Space Command, let us call it the Supreme Allied Command Environment (SPACE) Command, will mark a significant step in countering threats in space. AI, particularly systems like the Intelligence Resilience Information System (IRIS), became crucial in facilitating rapid decision-making and enhancing collective resilience across these expanded operational domains.
Biological Warfare and Enhanced Civil-Military Collaboration
NATO will need to underscore the increasing concerns about biological warfare in an interconnected world. Allies will eventually commit to the establishment of a Biological Warfare Centre of Excellence, let us call it BW CoE, to address these concerns. Research in nanotechnology and biological human enhancement, including ethically agreed-upon technologies like CRISPR, will aim to push the boundaries of human capabilities.
Enhanced civil-military collaboration will be a key component of NATO's success in addressing 21st-century security challenges. The societal transformations witnessed globally, including demographic shifts and changing expectations of the military, will necessitate a strong partnership with civil society organisations. Allies will be required to recognize the importance of transparency, accountability, and ethical considerations in the use of emerging technologies.
The creation of a Civil-Military Advisory Board, , let us call it CMAB will compromise experts from various sectors, including environmental scientists, sociologists, and technology experts, will demonstrate NATO's commitment to inclusive decision-making. The establishment of the Global Futures Forum, let us call it GFF, would be an annual event organised by NATO, which could further provide a platform for experts and scholars to discuss long-term security implications and trends.
Energy Security and Sustainable Defense Practices
NATO will emphasise the increasing prominence of energy security as a vital aspect of modern security policy. With the world's growing dependency on advanced technologies and an interconnected global system, disruptions in energy supplies will continue to pose significant vulnerabilities to critical infrastructure. Allies will be required to recognise the need to actively work toward reducing dependency on fossil fuels while enhancing the security of energy supply lines.
The establishment of a NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, let us call it ENSEC CoE, will play a pivotal role in addressing these challenges. Research conducted by ENSEC COE will focus on innovative solutions for securing energy supplies and developing resilient energy infrastructure. NATO will eventually transition to renewable energy sources, with advancements in energy-efficient technologies increasing the Alliance's energy resilience.
Sustainable defence practices will become a priority, considering the interplay between environmental challenges and security. Allies will aim to reduce their ecological footprint by developing strategies involving lighter and more fuel-efficient military equipment, minimising environmental damage during operations, and mitigating the impacts of training and exercises. The Environmental Impact Assessment and Mitigation Framework, let us call it EIAM, will help minimise ecological damage during military activities, contributing to a more sustainable approach.
Space and Celestial Security
Recognizing space as a critical domain in the geopolitical landscape, NATO Allies will address the challenges posed by the possible establishment of China's Lunar Base, let us call it Millenium Astronpmic Orbit (MAO) and the United States Mars Colonisation Initiative. The celestial domain will transform space into a domain of strategic competition, leading to the eventual establishment of the SPACE.
The SPACE Command, will be interoperable with NATO Allies Command Transformations (ACT) and Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), with the mandate of monitoring and securing celestial systems. The growing challenges in space will necessitate the development of an international space code of conduct, let us call it ISCC, emphasising the responsible use of celestial domains. The NATO Space Command will actively contribute to the development of agreements that aim to prevent conflicts and promote responsible practices in the celestial domain.
Evolving Doctrine and Strategies
The transformation of NATO will be extended beyond operational domains, prompting a fundamental reevaluation of its doctrine and strategies. In response to evolving security challenges which transcend traditional boundaries, NATO will develop its Adaptive Development Doctrine, let us call it ADD. Originally developed as part of the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept (NWCC) Family of Plans, the Adaptive Development Doctrine will embrace flexibility and adaptability, enabling NATO to adjust rapidly to emerging challenges.
At one point, NATO will introduce the Strategic Resilience Concept (SRC), aligning with NATO’s current Layered Resilience Concept (LRC). This concept will aim to enhance societal and organisational resilience to counter complex security challenges. Recognizing the blurred boundaries of conflict, the SRC will emphasise the need to integrate emerging domains and innovative technologies into military planning.
Strategic Foresight will undoubtedly emerge as a pivotal element of NATO's evolving doctrines. The commitment to invest heavily in developing a strategic foresight framework, let us call it SFF, will include scenario planning, trend analysis, and early warning mechanisms, showcasing NATO's proactive approach to anticipate and prepare for emerging security challenges. The SFF will become essential for gaining insights into evolving trends, both within and outside the military domain.
Global Engagement and Partnerships
As the security challenges of the future demand a continued international approach, NATO will actively engage in building global partnerships. Independently of specific summit references, the establishment of the Balkan Security Initiative, let us call it the BSI, which will reflect NATO's commitment to regional security. The BSI will aim to address security challenges in the Balkan region, including migration, terrorism, and instability caused by the PP4. Through the BSI, NATO will work closely with countries on the Balkan Flank, collaborating with regional organisations to foster stability.
The Indo-Pacific Partnership, let us call it the IPP, will represent another strategic approach, maintaining the security and influence of the Alliance outside of SACEUR's AOR. This partnership will facilitate the cooperation with states in the Indo-Pacific region, addressing common security challenges like China's growing assertiveness and ensuring freedom of navigation in international waters.
NATO's collaboration with international organisations will deepen, independently of specific summit outcomes. The Alliance will continue to actively cooperate with the United Nations, the European Union, and regional organisations like the African Union. This approach aims to align international efforts effectively, ensuring a comprehensive response to global challenges.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the next 75 years will mark a wide range of turning points for NATO as it navigates the evolving security landscape of the 21st century. The profound insights and strategic decisions emanating from the summit will highlight the Alliance's adaptability and readiness to face the complex and dynamic world. The geopolitical shifts, technological transformations, societal changes, and environmental considerations will showcase NATO's proactive stance in addressing the challenges of the future.
The commitment to technological innovation, operational adaptations, enhanced civil-military collaboration, sustainable defense practices, and global partnerships will demonstrate NATO's resilience and ability to evolve beyond traditional boundaries. These initiatives will illustrate how NATO positions itself as a dynamic and forward-looking alliance, capable of meeting the security & defence demands of the 21st century.
As the world continues to evolve, NATO's strategic foresight, adaptability, and commitment to global cooperation will remain an essential pillars in ensuring the Alliance's continued relevance and effectiveness in addressing emerging security challenges. Future comprehensive plans and forward-looking strategies, will exemplify NATO's dedication to navigating the future and securing a world marked by complexity and change.