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The Fourth Winter: Inside Russia's Evolving War on Ukraine's Energy
As Ukraine enters its fourth winter of full-scale war, Russia has unleashed an annihilation campaign against its energy infrastructure. Massive, coordinated strikes, including a barrage of 705 missiles and drones on October 30, 2025 , signal a new and dangerous phase of this protracted energy war. The humanitarian consequences have prompted the United Nations to issue stern warnings, but will Russia heed them? Matthias Schmale, the UN's humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine, ha

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Nov 11, 20256 min read


What Russia's Abandoning of INF Restraints Means for European & Transatlantic Security
Russia abandoned the final restrictions it was under under the now obsolete INF Treaty in August 2025. This decision shortened warning times and broadened the range of hybrid threats aimed at Europe, including ground-launched missiles, long-range drones, cyber operations and sabotage against the networks and nodes that keep the continent running. The greatest risk lies with critical infrastructure, where even limited disruption can have a knock-on effect across borders. Th
CYIS Organisation
Oct 28, 20258 min read


Code, Courage, and Crowdfunding: Inside Ukraine's Unconventional Blueprint for Victory
In addition to the ongoing support of its Western partners, Ukraine continues its daily resistance to Russian forces through the mobilisation of civil society, the public sector and volunteer initiatives. Despite the enormous challenges posed by the enemy's numerical superiority and turbulent political processes in the West, Ukraine is not only defending its sovereignty but also changing the very paradigms of modern warfare. Ukraine's resilience is not solely due to Western t

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Oct 21, 20257 min read


NATO's Nordic Fortress: A New Era of Deterrence in the Face of Russian Assertiveness
Seeking to demonstrate its military strength, NATO conducted a series of large-scale military exercises across Northern Europe, sending a clear, unambiguous message of deterrence to an increasingly aggressive Russia. This show of force, the largest since the Cold War, is not just routine training. Still, a manifestation of a new strategic reality in which the Far North has become the centre of geopolitical competition, and the line between peace and potential conflict is b

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Oct 16, 20257 min read


Testing the Red Line: Russian Drones and NATO's Article 5
The Unanswered Question Over European Skies The skies above NATO member states no longer appear entirely peaceful. After Russia...

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Oct 7, 20257 min read


Europe’s Independence Moment: Turning Strategy into an Operating System
In her 2025 State of the Union address, Ursula von der Leyen declared that Europe is “in a fight” and must treat security, technology and...

Isabel Rodenas
Oct 2, 20255 min read


China’s Rise in Global Trade: Infrastructure, Influence, and Implications for Europe
The dynamics of global trade underwent significant changes from 2000 to 2024. The EU used to be the clear leader, but China eventually...
CYIS Organisation
Sep 15, 202510 min read


Is Europe Preparing for a High-Intensity Conflict? A Scenario-Based Assessment.
Executive Summary: Short conclusion: Europe is not on an inevitable path to a full-scale interstate war, but its political-military...

Andrei-Vasile Rus
Sep 11, 202513 min read


Fragile Promises: Ukraine, Russia, and the Scenarios Shaping Tomorrow’s Peace.
What did the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska really give us? Long-awaited peace or more empty promises? The way the US military...

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Sep 9, 20258 min read


From Reliance to Resilience: Why Europe Must Hedge Against U.S. Volatility and Build a Cohesive Defence
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has exposed Europe’s capability gaps and fragile supply chains, as well as the costs of...

Isabel Rodenas
Sep 4, 20257 min read


Hybrid Threats and the Erosion of Democratic Trust in Europe
What if a silent war had already begun… and you didn’t even notice? Across Europe, a new kind of war is unfolding—one that does not...
Alice Trenchard
Aug 7, 20255 min read


The Return of Strongman Diplomacy: Operation Rising Lion and Its Consequences for the Middle East and Beyond
The long-feared open exchange of hostilities between long-time regional rivals, Iran and Israel, ended almost as abruptly as it began –...

Maximilian Wolf
Aug 5, 202514 min read


The Geopolitics of the Arctic: A New Theatre for Conflict and Competition
Introduction An often-overlooked region of the world, the Arctic has risen in visibility and global significance, extending beyond the...

Sophie Rieckmann
Aug 5, 20259 min read


Europe's Defence Deficit: Why NATO is Unprepared for the Next Eastern Front
A New Era of European (In)security With its hybrid warfare tactics — both kinetic, like missile debris landing from Ukraine into Poland,...

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Jul 31, 202513 min read


The Dark Side of Smart Warfare: The Rising Threat of AI Misuse, Weaponisation, and Misinformation
A New Frontier in Conflict Artificial intelligence already diagnoses cancers, trades stocks, and writes poetry, but its most...

Isabel Rodenas
Jul 29, 20255 min read


The Rise of China Until 2030: How Much Will It Rise, and How Much Will the U.S. Hold On?
The US was viewed as a state with striking economic growth and geopolitical ambition for a long time. Yet, it was reluctant to confront...

Viktoriia Rafalovych
Jul 3, 202528 min read


Toeing the Threshold: Russia’s Hybrid Grand Strategy and the Future of NATO's ‘Strategic Ambiguity’
On April 22, 2023, a woman on a horse ride in a forest near the Polish city of Bydgoszcz was stunned to find the wrecked remains of an...

Maximilian Wolf
Jul 1, 202514 min read


“Beyond the Border: What Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Drone Attack Means for the Future of Proxy and Drone Warfare”
Written by Viktoriia Rafalovych , Maximilian Wolf , Sophie Rieckmann , Andrei I. Cursaru Edited by Andrei I. Cursaru Introduction In June...
CYIS Organisation
Jun 5, 202512 min read


Ukraine as a Critical Juncture for Atrocity Prevention
Introduction Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022, the conflict has rarely left Western media headlines. Both...

Eleanor Smith
Oct 26, 20248 min read


Youth in Conflict
Five years ago, on 9 December 2015, the resolution S/RES/2250 on Youth, Peace and Security was adopted by the United Nations Security...

Lil Oggesen
Oct 26, 20244 min read
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