Hybrid Threats and the Erosion of Democratic Trust in Europe

What if a silent war had already begun… and you didn’t even notice?

Across Europe, a new kind of war is unfolding—one that does not involve bombs or tanks but rather tweets, stolen data, and manipulated news cycles. This invisible battle, known as cognitive warfare, operates not on physical battlegrounds but within the minds of citizens. It is part of a broader strategy called hybrid threats, where digital manipulation, psychological tactics, and political interference are combined to undermine the very fabric of democratic societies.

These threats aim not to occupy land but to erode trust, distort reality, and weaken institutions from within. They work silently and swiftly, exploiting the openness of democratic systems and the vulnerabilities of modern digital communication.

Cognitive Warfare: A Weaponised Narrative

At the centre of cognitive warfare lies disinformation—the calculated and deliberate spread of false or misleading information. Unlike misinformation, which may be shared unintentionally, disinformation is intentionally crafted. It is designed to mislead, manipulate, and provoke. In the context of hybrid threats, it often accompanies cyberattacks and foreign interference to create confusion and destabilise societies.

Disinformation has become a powerful tool during democratic moments such as elections. When timed strategically, it can influence voter behaviour, discredit political candidates, and undermine public trust in the democratic process. These operations are often planned and executed by foreign actors seeking to disrupt political balance and foster internal division.

The Anatomy of a Hybrid Threat

Hybrid campaigns employ a range of coordinated tactics. Political institutions may be hacked and sensitive data stolen, only to be leaked at moments of maximum political impact. Online platforms may be flooded with fake accounts and bots pushing divisive narratives or amplifying extremist views. Propaganda is carefully crafted to exploit existing societal tensions, utilising emotional appeals and false claims to exacerbate divisions.

A particularly potent tool in these campaigns is the use of Cyber Cognitive Platforms—known as CYCOPS. These systems coordinate large-scale digital operations across social media, pushing specific narratives to make them appear popular, authentic, or widely accepted, even when they are entirely false. By embedding themselves in everyday platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and Instagram, these campaigns often go unnoticed by the average user. The result is a subtle but powerful manipulation of public discourse, one that bypasses traditional media gatekeepers and reaches millions within hours.

Online influencers, meme pages, and troll accounts also play a critical role. Influencers can present false information in a relatable or friendly tone, particularly appealing to younger audiences. Memes transform complex political messages into viral, shareable content that is harder to question. Trolls, often coordinated by foreign groups, post inflammatory content to provoke outrage and drive engagement. Meanwhile, automated bots artificially boost the visibility of certain posts, tricking algorithms into promoting falsehoods. These methods work together to simulate a false sense of consensus, repeating misleading claims until they feel familiar, if not believable. In doing so, they erode the very space in which democratic debate takes place.

Europe’s Present Vulnerability

In recent years, hybrid threats have become a growing concern for European security. Several EU member states have experienced foreign-led disinformation campaigns targeting their political systems. These campaigns are not isolated events—they are part of a larger strategy aimed at constraining Europe’s autonomy, delegitimising its democratic values, and increasing internal polarisation.

Cyberattacks have targeted everything from government institutions and hospitals to election servers and critical infrastructure. Espionage activities have increased, often involving the theft of sensitive or classified information. Influence operations have targeted media outlets, political leaders, and grassroots social movements, exploiting moments of national crisis or political uncertainty.

The goal is consistent: to destabilise democratic societies from within by sowing doubt, division, and distrust. These attacks typically coincide with key political events, such as elections or referenda, when societies are most susceptible to external manipulation. False news stories may be circulated about political candidates, social media bots may flood platforms with polarising content, and stolen documents may be released to discredit opponents. The intention is not simply to spread lies but to make people question what is real.

Case Study: How Hybrid Warfare Targets Elections

France, a founding member of the European Union and a global power, serves as a prime example of how hybrid threats can impact elections with significant geopolitical consequences. Due to its international influence, presidential elections in France are not merely national events; they are moments that can significantly alter the political landscape in Europe and beyond.

During the 2017 presidential election, then-candidate Emmanuel Macron’s campaign became the target of a large-scale cognitive warfare operation. In the final days leading up to the vote, hackers stole internal documents and emails from his team. These were released online in a coordinated leak, accompanied by the hashtag #MacronLeaks. False narratives were crafted around the leaked content, mixing genuine material with forged information to create confusion and undermine Macron’s credibility at a critical moment.

Although the attack was extensive, French institutions and media responded rapidly, fact-checking the claims and limiting their impact. Still, the incident exposed the fragility of democratic systems in the digital age, especially during election cycles.

Looking ahead to the 2027 French presidential election, the threat of renewed interference looms large. If 2017 is any indication, future campaigns may involve more sophisticated tactics, including AI-generated content, deepfake videos, and highly targeted disinformation efforts across emerging platforms. The challenge for France—and all democracies—will be to safeguard electoral integrity without restricting free expression.

The broader implications of such attacks are deeply troubling. They erode public trust in democratic institutions, fuel political polarisation, and empower fringe parties on both the far right and far left by amplifying grievance-based narratives. These campaigns also challenge the concept of digital sovereignty as states struggle to maintain control over the information environments in which their citizens operate. The power of social media to divide populations, combined with new technologies that accelerate the spread of disinformation, makes the democratic process more vulnerable than ever.

A similar pattern was observed during the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom. Throughout the campaign, misleading information about immigration, economics, and EU regulations was widely circulated, often through anonymous or foreign-linked accounts. Many of these falsehoods went unchallenged and played a significant role in shaping public opinion. The outcome demonstrated how unchecked disinformation can lead to major political upheaval.

Building Resilience: What Can Be Done?

In response to these rising threats, European governments have begun to take action. In 2024, the Partnership for Peace Consortium, supported by the German government, introduced a new educational initiative titled “Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare – Reference Curriculum.” The program is designed to equip institutions and individuals with the tools to recognise and respond to hybrid threats.

But education, while essential, is only part of the solution. Democracies must go further—strengthening collaboration across borders, investing in cybersecurity, and increasing public awareness through national campaigns.

Ordinary citizens also play a vital role. By verifying information before sharing it, seeking out diverse sources of news, and engaging in thoughtful discussion with others, individuals can become more resilient to disinformation. Democracy is not maintained solely by politicians or institutions. It depends on a well-informed and critically minded public.

The digital age has introduced powerful new challenges to democratic governance. But it has also created new opportunities for vigilance, education, and collective action. Recognising the threat of hybrid warfare is the first step. Responding with unity, intelligence, and transparency is the path forward.