As elections in Guinea saw Alpha Condé securing his third term as president, political unrest and growing economic instability called for a reflection on the present and future challenges for the development of the West African nation.
Considering the significant issues that emerged throughout Condé’s previous terms, how can the ‘new’ presidency implement development in the country? In this analysis, we highlight the need for reforms and opportunities in three crucial sectors: agriculture, migration and jobs growth, and infrastructure.
Three key challenges presented during Condé’s presidency
While Guinea has registered important improvements in national development variables throughout the past twenty years, with an increase of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (by 73.9% between 1990 and 2018) and average life expectancy, the country still faces significant challenges in its growth trajectory (UNDP, 2019). In 2018, Guinea was ranked one of the lowest countries in human development, placing 174 out of 189 in the Human Development Index (HDI) and it faces high risks in terms of macroeconomic and fiscal reforms, and aggravated social and political instability, according to the World Development Bank. The situation was exacerbated during Condé’s terms (2010-2020), when corruption and anti-democratic measures increased.
This had a deep impact on sustainable economic growth in the country, causing i) a lack of resources and access to information, new technology, financial services and a general absence of institutions and regulatory framework in the agriculture sector, which remains a critical factor in poverty alleviation and rural development; (ii) a lack of job prospects, leading to increased migration of unemployed young people to other neighbouring countries such as Ivory Coast and Senegal, or to Europe, and ultimately causing a depopulation of the villages, brain drain, and a decrease in labour capacity (L. Ghirardello, R. Benedikter, 2020); (iii) limited investments in infrastructure, with Guinea ranking 125 out of 141 countries for infrastructure, according to the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness 2019 Report.
Three implications that follow
In order to boost sustainable economic development, the Condé presidency will have to address these challenges with a set of new structural reforms in the crucial sectors for the country. Firstly, considering that agriculture provides income for 57% of rural households and employment for 52% of the workforce and that most Guineans reside in rural areas (around 67%), productivity in this sector remains low. Additionally, a major threat to agriculture comes from climate change, which further exposes the rural population to vulnerabilities. Since the food production does not meet the population’s demand, there is a risk of turning to international food markets to guarantee a basic food supply, damaging the domestic market. International organisations, i.e. FAO, initiated small-scale projects to reduce food insecurity and manage food crises; however, there needs to be a stronger push from the new presidency to strengthen local governance and increase participation of rural population to the policy development. Digital innovation and new technologies will also play a decisive role in shaping the future of this sector. Moreover, targeted investments in key areas, i.e. in climate smart agriculture (CSA), could present opportunities to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability of rural communities, by improving the integration of agriculture development and climate responsiveness.
Moreover, Guinea’s young population, with an average age of 18 years old as reported by the World Population Review, combined with the growing rate of demographics (around 2.68%) would provide the country with a potential strong labour force. Sectors like agriculture and mining (Guinea is the world’s biggest supplier of bauxite) are, on paper, an ideal pool for job growth. However, poor to non-existent youth policies and slow modernisation contributed to migration of young workers abroad. While an attempt at a reform of youth policy was launched in 2014, with a three-axes strategy focused on employment of young people and promotion of job creation; socio-educational activities and their institutions; and a consistent framework for public policy for youth, there seems to have been little follow-through. This demands for a creation of job opportunities beyond the informal sector, a stimulation of youth-oriented reforms, along with investments in terms of education and schooling to form the new generations.
Finally, infrastructure encompasses energy, telecommunications, transport and water, and it provides commodities and services essential not only to enhance living conditions, but also to boost other sectors, like agriculture. Guinea’s transportation system mainly relies on inland transportation, together with the fixed-line telecommunications and electricity generation infrastructure. There is a strong need for a framework for integrated infrastructure planning in order to provide a strategic approach for sequencing, prioritising and financing infrastructure investments to maximise their contribution to economic growth. President Condé himself stated that he laid the foundations of development and specifically needs this third term to finish major mining and infrastructure projects (Samb, 2020).
Strengthening youth-oriented reforms
Alpha Condé’s re-election is of critical importance in the current debate on Guinea’s future, provided that it could either constitute an opportunity to continue to work on national key development priorities, or, on the other hand, could stunt development reached in past decades, exacerbating political unrest, violence and instability.
In order to generate sustainable economic growth, we singled out three key sectors that will require attention: agriculture, migration and jobs growth, and infrastructure. These areas are deeply intertwined and call for targeted yet coordinated actions. Despite the positive impact of international initiatives and a moderate economic growth, central and local governments need to invest in structural reforms to ensure that the Guinean population living in poorly connected rural areas has access to food security, a stronger presence of governance and institutions, and financial support from the government side.
Considering the importance of young people as a potential pool for the labour force in the country, the Condé administration will need to invest in transformational processes, introducing more youth-oriented policies, and ultimately combining this with a more open and trustful governance.
Authors: Lucía Palacio Sasse and Morane Verhoeven
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