By Bernardo Kaiser, South America Research Analyst, with expert insight from University of Sao Paulo professor Pedro Luiz Côrtes.
Throughout January of 2020, Brazilians all around the country watched as the Pantanal - one of the world's largest wetlands in the Centre-west of the country – was consumed by flames. After a series of devastating fires, the region lost 26% of its biome and 10 million of its animals. One of the causes of this unprecedented environmental disaster was a historic drought in the region, considered the worst in 50 years. This drought made it easier for illegal fires - started to clear land for pasture - to spread, causing the environmental disaster.
Today, however, an even more severe drought threatens to create a hydric crisis worse than the one experienced in the Pantanal. 5 states – Sao Paulo, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul - face the worst drought in 111 years, or as long as meteorological services in the country have been recording rain levels. This crisis could have a disastrous effect on the Brazilian economy and put several biomes under grave risk of collapse.
The worst drought ever recorded – until the next one.
Water crises are not a foreign concept for Sao Paulo, Brazil’s most populous state. In 2014 the city experienced water rationing and rolling black-outs as reservoirs ran dry and hydroelectric power potentials decreased. Yet, the causes of the 2014 hydric crisis have been amplified in the last few years due to anthropogenic reasons.
One factor contributing to the recurring droughts is global warming and its effects on the global hydrological cycle. According to research conducted by the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper using data collected from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology, Sao Paulo is 3 degrees Celsius hotter today than in 1980 due to climate change. Furthermore, periods of intense rainfall have been interchanged with longer periods without rain. Finally, periodic droughts used to last between 9 to 16 days in the 1960s. In the past decade, this phenomenon has increased to around 28 to 51 days. With climate change accelerating, there is every reason to believe these droughts will become even longer and more regular.
A second reason is the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. Pedro Cortes, professor of the Energy and Environment Institute of the University of Sao Paulo, in an exclusive interview for CYIS, summarises the importance of the forest for the continent’s rain cycle: “The roots of the Amazon trees capture the moisture brought by Atlantic winds and return them to the atmosphere through their release of water vapour. Continental winds then take this vapour to the Andes Mountains range, and from there, it deviates to Centre-West and South-eastern Brazil, leaving rain on its way.” These are the so-called ‘Flying rivers’ – moist winds responsible for guaranteeing the water safety of most of Southern Brazil. With the advance of deforestation, the rainforest cannot maintain the atmospheric humidity necessary to ensure regular rain cycles.
If the current pattern of environmental degradation continues unabated, these ‘flying rivers’ will run increasingly drier – and deforestation is not only continuing but accelerating. 2020 presented the highest level of deforestation in 10 years, with a 30% growth rate from 2019. 17% of the Amazon biome has already been cleared to make way for soybean crops, grazing area for cattle or for timber production.
Even though the Bolsonaro government pledged to clamp down on illegal deforestation during the last Climate Summit, very little has been done. Over 2.9 billion BRLs donated to the Amazon Fund - An international fund voluntarily financed by foreign governments responsible for managing forest fires – remain unused since 2019, as the collegiate bodies responsible for managing the money were closed down by Decree 9759/19. Consequently, no new projects could be approved as no administrative bodies have been established in their place. Bolsonaro’s previous environment minister, Ricardo Salles, had to quit his job after indications of his involvement with the illegal trade of Amazonian timber. Moreover, although a federal decree was published by the end of June blocking any type of controlled burns in the Amazon for 120 days, fires have expanded significantly in July.
Bolsonaro’s hostility towards environmental protection, in general, is focused on job creation and development in the Amazon. However, his policies are leading not to GDP growth in the region but to severe economic impact on the rest of the country.
The economic consequences.
Directly affecting the most densely populated region in South America, the consequences of these repeated droughts are not just disastrous to local fauna and flora but also to its human inhabitants . Repeated water shortages drastically affect consumers, highlighting the significant socioeconomic disparities in Brazilian society. During the last water crisis, poorer neighbourhoods were twice as likely to suffer supply cuts. These cuts were also especially tough on local small businesses, which are already the main economic victims of COVID-19 and its sanitary measures, exacerbating the ongoing unemployment crisis in the country.
On the agricultural front, the drought has already caused severe losses in crucial crops in the state, such as corn, sugarcane, and coffee. These losses can affect inflation: “With higher irrigation costs and potential crop losses, food prices can soar, indirectly affecting other goods and services along the way”, mentions Researcher Pedro Costes. “With little hydroelectric capacity, industries might need to supplement their energy needs with thermo-electric power, which is generally more expensive”. This extra cost would most certainly be distributed to the consumer. Higher prices in crops like corn also represent an additional cost for animal feed, meaning that the already high prices for meat and poultry could get even worse. High costs mean a return of the spectre of hunger: with a rapid escalation of the price of even essential products such as rice and beans – getting almost 30% more expensive than in comparison with last years in certain state capitals – over half of all Brazilians suffer or have recently suffered from food insecurity in the country. Add these high prices to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the country may risk facing a storm of social turmoil
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One of the greatest potential consequences, however, is energy rationing. 70% of all energy consumed in Brazil comes from hydroelectric power plants fed by water reservoirs in the Southeast. Some reservoirs, like the ones on the Paraná River, are already in a critical state. The absolute risk of energy rationing in the coming months has forced the Federal government to declare a situation of hydric emergency and limit the water flow out of these reservoirs in order to avoid total collapse in supply. An immediate consequence of this decision includes the preclusion of using the Paraná river as a viable water route for the transportation of grains produced in the country’s centre-west. Due to higher costs for production and transportation, foreign markets might be affected as well. Brazil’s main exports depend on low-cost agricultural production, and a climb in prices may affect the cost of products in the world market.
How to stop the droughts?
With the prospect of increasingly severe and frequent droughts in the coming years, coordinated measures between state and Federal governments must be undertaken to stop the transformation of the Sao Paulo region into a de-facto desert. “The first thing is to publicly recognise the ongoing crisis” explains Pedro Cortes. “The Sao Paulo Company of Public Sanitation (SABESP) refuses to position itself regarding any potential supply crisis in 2022, only saying there is enough water for 2021. However, the water supply levels today are lower than they were in 2013 – one year before the catastrophic supply crisis of 2014”.
Another solution would be to invest in the use and production of recycled water, making water supply in the country more resilient to climate change and reduce wasteful use for non-drinkable purposes. Brazil has taken significant steps for expanding its water recycling capacity – in 2012, the Sao Paulo State inaugurated Aquapolo, the largest water-recycling plant in the Southern Hemisphere, raising recycled water production in the state to 1.746.000 m³ annually. Furthermore, in 2019, the Sao Paulo State government signed a commitment with the 2030 Water Resources Group – a civil society organisation hosted by the World Bank – in order to expand and optimise the water recycling infrastructure within the state, prioritising inter-municipal enterprises and raising the state’s capacity for reuse until 2022.
Nevertheless, these are all short-term solutions that do not tackle the root cause of the problem – climate change and rampant deforestation. The Brazilian government must immediately halt the causes of Amazon deforestation through stricter surveillance and stronger sanctions to private enterprises that break environmental rules. Furthermore, it should expand the territorial coverage of the soybean moratory – a 2006 agreement that limits the expansion of the soybean production border in the country – beyond the limits of the Amazon biome (approximately 4.2 million sm²). Finally, it should establish an effective tracking system to detect illegally produced meat and timber in the national market, limiting the credit access to non-complying parties.
However, for any of these measures to be applied, Brazil needs a move towards sustainability that is currently absent from official plans. Civil society organisations, local state governments and the international community must pressure the federal government towards an active role in curbing deforestation. This pressure is not simply a philanthropic act – it may be central to preventing catastrophic ecological disasters in the future.
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